Palladium is quietly becoming a geopolitical pressure point, and recently published research argues that's a bullish setup.
The core data point: roughly 89% of US palladium supply is imported, placing the metal in the crosshairs of US-China supply chain rivalry. One camp of analysts frames this as a structural, multi-year story rather than a short-term trade.
The bull case, as laid out in that research, rests on two legs. First, Western jurisdictions — Greenland in particular — are fast-tracking new projects designed to reduce reliance on geopolitically sensitive suppliers. Second, meaningful government and institutional capital is flowing in to underwrite that new supply build-out.
The published view is that this combination — strategic urgency plus real funding — should provide durable upward price support for palladium over a multi-year horizon. It's less a call on next quarter and more a thesis about where critical minerals sit in a reshuffling global order.
Worth watching how quickly those Western projects actually move from announcement to output.