Palladium may stay under pressure for years, according to one published research view this week.
The argument: palladium is caught in a broader "pump then dump" unwind across precious metals, where speculative positioning that drove prices higher is now reversing. Researchers making this case point to three forces working against the metal. First, the speculative sentiment that propped up prices has broken down. Second, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal keeps rising as income-generating assets like US Treasuries offer real returns. Third, commodities broadly are reverting from elevated levels back toward more normal ranges.
Worth flagging: this is currently a lone voice on palladium specifically — no other research desk surfaced a competing view in today's flow, so treat it as one informed thread rather than a consensus call. Bulls would need a catalyst — a sentiment shift, a yield reversal, or a supply shock — to break the setup these analysts describe.