Crude is caught in a split-screen debate: published research leans bullish on the near term and the new base price, but sell-side forecast tables mostly expect oil to drift lower through 2027. WTI is trading around $103–105, and the bearish calls describe a path, not an immediate drop.
On the bull side, researchers argue Middle East supply risk, the Iran situation after the US midterms, and clean technical uptrends support higher prices. A structural thread adds that peaking US shale has reduced supply responsiveness and inventories still need rebuilding, lifting the floor under crude. One tactical read sees WTI targeting the $120 prior highs unless a peace deal breaks the trend.
The bearish camp expects supply to recover and the energy shock to fade. Published forecasts see Brent averaging around $101 in late 2026 and easing toward $77 by late 2027, with WTI drifting into the mid-$70s. A contrarian view holds that any lasting Hormuz risk premium is limited because economies use less oil per unit of GDP and substitutes have spread.
Scenario work flags $130–150 Brent as a risk case, not a base case.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026): WTI crude oil: speculators (managed money) are net long, 2.0% of open interest. Positioning is mid-range (COT index 49 of 100), not at an extreme. The net position fell by 4,387 contracts on the week.