European natural gas looks set for sustained upside, according to a notably one-sided reading of recently published research.
Researchers flag that European storage sat at just 73% of capacity in early October — well below seasonal norms — making supply tightness the dominant near-term driver heading into winter. One camp of analysts argues that geopolitical and supply disruptions have already pushed prices higher, with no meaningful reversal likely while current conditions hold.
A broader thread of recent research frames the post-July price surge as more durable than futures curves implied, with updated projections now embedding persistently higher European gas prices through 2027–2028. The published view treats this less as a transient spike and more as a second wave of the energy supply shock. A separate institutional assessment echoes the point, noting the mean-reversion path for gas is now shallower than previously assumed.
Notably, across the research surveyed there is no dissenting voice — near-term, cyclical, and long-horizon views all point the same way, and all focus on European benchmarks rather than US gas or LNG.