European and UK natural gas look set to stay expensive, according to a strongly bullish consensus in recently published research.
One strand of analysis flags UK gas pushing above 175 pence per therm, with storage sitting below EU targets and supply constrained by maintenance. That combination is described as a negative supply shock likely to keep energy prices higher for longer.
A separate line of published research reinforces the point, arguing that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Russian refining infrastructure have exposed structural weaknesses in European gas supply. Governments, these researchers note, are increasingly prioritising supply-chain security over cost efficiency.
Both camps highlight that build-out of alternative infrastructure remains slow, reducing the odds of meaningful price relief in the near term. Related work on fertilisers indirectly supports the picture, pointing to elevated energy costs as a key driver of nitrogen price support.
The cyclical horizon these views share: persistently elevated European gas prices over the next year.