Published research is uniformly bullish on natural gas heading into winter, with a growing chorus warning of a possible repeat energy crisis in Europe.
One camp of analysts is calling for a sustained second wave of price increases running through the end of 2026, pointing to geopolitical tensions and an energy shock that is proving stickier than expected. On this view, prices stay elevated and only gradually normalize, with no meaningful relief until mid-2027.
A separate strategic argument in recent research is that Europe has permanently lost long-term Russian pipeline supply and now leans heavily on spot LNG — leaving the continent acutely exposed to any cold snap. European gas (TTF) is flagged as the most acute near-term risk, especially if this winter runs colder than average, a scenario some tie to El Niño.
A contrarian supply-side thread adds that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could delay new LNG capacity coming online, tightening the market further.
Bottom line from the published consensus: the path of least resistance for gas prices is higher.