European gas took center stage this week, with published research broadly arguing prices will stay elevated into winter.
Analysts pointed to a sharp move in Dutch TTF from around €40/MWh in June to €70–80/MWh, with several notes flagging three-year highs. Drivers cited: Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz transit risk, heatwave-driven power demand, and EU storage running near 60–67% versus a seasonal norm closer to 80–88%. UK wholesale gas was reported up 78% since July, and one central bank projected further household price-cap increases.
Asia wasn't spared: one forecast pegged Japanese LNG averaging roughly $21.5/mmbtu in Q3, with tightness expected through 2028. Vietnam's pivot toward LNG-fired power was cited as another structural demand leg. In the US, researchers argued oil-to-gas substitution and infrastructure bottlenecks — pipelines, permitting, LNG export and data center demand — skew risks higher.
The main counterweight in the published work: new US LNG capacity arriving late 2026 into 2027 should eventually ease the squeeze.