Natural gas told a split story this week: bearish at Henry Hub, bullish nearly everywhere else.
On the US side, early-week research flagged Henry Hub futures under clear pressure, with the January contract breaking below last winter's support and down nearly 20% year-to-date. Hedge funds were noted as short, and one thread framed the move as a leading "post-inflation deflation" signal for broader energy.
The European and global picture ran the other way. Analysts warned TTF has pushed above €60/MWh as tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz stalled, with winter inventories not refilling as hoped and Turkish pipeline and Houthi-related risks stacking up — one note called the coming winter potentially "quite catastrophic" for importers. Structural demand from heatwaves, electrification, and unreliable nuclear and wind output was cited as another leg higher for gas-fired generation.
On LNG, published commentary argued pipeline gas is losing trust and Asian buyers are locking in seaborne supply, with the IEA now leaning into higher gas demand scenarios.