European natural gas could be the pain trade this winter, according to newly published research.
One recent research view argues that European TTF gas prices face meaningful further upside into winter, contingent on current supply disruptions and colder weather materializing. The analysis flags that European gas inventories aren't refilling at the pace many expected heading into the cold season.
The same published view highlights two under-appreciated supply risks: potential disruptions to Turkish pipeline flows and continued Houthi activity affecting shipping routes. Layered on top, researchers point to El Niño as an amplifier that could tilt weather outcomes against Europe.
The framing is stark — the coming winter is described in this research as potentially "quite catastrophic" for regions like Europe that don't produce their own hydrocarbons and rely on imports to get through peak demand.
Notably, no comparable bullish or bearish calls on US Henry Hub or global LNG pricing surfaced in today's research flow — the conviction is squarely on the European side.