Natural gas is telling two very different stories depending on where you look, according to research published this week.
In the US, analysts argue Henry Hub prices have slipped back below $3/MMBtu on larger-than-expected inventory builds and maintenance issues at the Freeport LNG terminal, which is bottling up domestic supply and dragging on export demand. The near-term view from that camp is bearish.
Europe looks tighter. The published research consensus is that Northwest European storage sits at historical lows, LNG cargoes are being pulled to Asia where buyers pay more, and Qatari LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering more slowly than hoped — a setup some researchers say could make for a difficult winter and keep TTF bid through winter 2026. That call is explicitly conditional on Qatari delays persisting.
On Asian LNG, one recently-published view sees JKM staying elevated near $18.6/MMBtu into Q3 2026 on Ras Laffan supply constraints, easing back toward pre-conflict levels only by 2028.
A contrarian thread notes the Middle East energy shock may prove milder than 2022 — provided tensions don't re-escalate.