Published research is leaning bullish on natural gas — on both sides of the Atlantic, though for different reasons.
On Europe, one strand of recent analysis argues the ongoing heatwave is doing two things at once: lifting power demand for cooling, and forcing French nuclear plants to throttle output, which pushes more load onto gas-fired generation. Storage was already below seasonal norms heading into summer, and Middle East supply disruptions have made refilling harder. Researchers argue this combination is supportive for European gas prices through the current heat episode.
On US Henry Hub, a separate published view frames the $3.05–$3.15 zone as an attractive accumulation range, with an upside target above $4. The argument rests on storage injections tracking seasonal norms and what analysts describe as solid underlying fundamentals — pitched as a multi-month position rather than a short-term trade.
Different catalysts, same direction: a weather-driven demand shock in Europe, a cyclical accumulation thesis in the US.