Natural gas is flashing bullish across the board — Henry Hub, European TTF, and global LNG — and it's now the clear consensus call.
The biggest driver is Persian Gulf supply risk. Fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz threatens LNG flows out of the region, pushing TTF up nearly 6% in a single session to its highest level since early April. The prevailing view is that both European and Asian gas markets are still underpricing this risk, meaning prices likely need to climb further to cool demand and rebalance. European gas has already more than doubled since the conflict began, with no obvious alternative supply on the horizon — and storage sits at just 34% versus a 5-year average closer to 46%.
The US story is different but also bullish. Henry Hub looks well supported by strong LNG exports, tight storage, and building summer demand, with technical support holding around $2.80. Looking further out, one strategic view sees gas demand staying structurally elevated through 2030, with over 80% of proposed data-center power needs tied to gas. Strikes on Qatari LNG infrastructure and project delays are expected to keep global supply tight, reversing earlier expectations of a glut later this decade.
A more cautious framing: if Gulf disruption fully materializes, TTF could have a sizeable further leg higher from here.