Three forces are driving markets right now, according to this week's published research.
First, oil. Analysts broadly link Brent's slide below $92 to President Trump signaling further strikes on Iran are unlikely, which sparked a wider risk rally. One cautious thread warns the move needs a credible deal to hold, since prior declarations that the conflict was over were followed by renewed military action.
Second, inflation ran hot. Researchers flagged a 30bp upside surprise in core CPI concentrated in services, with energy pass-through broadening and "super core" at 0.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped near 5%, and the consensus view is that markets now fully price a December Fed hike. Governor Waller has floated a 50bp move, though most published takes expect the FOMC to deliver 25bp, with one more hike then a long pause.
Third, AI capex got a political shock. Several research notes tie the Democratic sweep, including state wins in Texas, to delays and cancellations of data-centre projects and a sharp hit to chip stocks — one estimate puts global AI equity losses above $6 trillion since late September. Most analysts frame this as delay or relocation rather than a broken capex cycle, though a minority view flags an AI bust as the main downside risk to growth.
Watch Fed speakers, the Dec 8–9 FOMC, PPI, Treasury auctions, and Nvidia earnings.