Democrats' midterm sweep sparked a global AI and chip sell-off this week, with the Nasdaq 100 down 6.4% and the semiconductor index off 12%.
Published research largely ties the rout to fears that a Democratic Congress — and new governors in states like Texas, Georgia and Ohio — will slow data-centre build-outs. Several analyst notes stress the real risk sits at the state level, since federal action would face a presidential veto. A contrarian thread argues the move is mostly technical: crowded positioning and forced deleveraging. Another camp frames the deeper question as whether AI capex will ever earn its cost of capital.
On the Fed, the consensus view is that October's 165K payrolls beat pushed December hike odds back to 75–80%. Some recently published work counters that tighter financial conditions from the equity drop could still force a pause. Falling oil on US–Iran deal hopes adds another wrinkle to the inflation debate.
Watch: US CPI Nov 10, PPI Nov 13, Anthropic's expected IPO as an AI financing test, and the Dec 9 FOMC.