US-Iran tensions and the oil risk premium into next week's midterms are dominating macro research right now, with AI capex doubts and the Fed's December path close behind.
On oil, most published analysis has Brent drifting toward $105-110 after Trump signalled he'd let Qatari-mediated talks play out, though one end-October print was flagged at $117.64. A broad camp of researchers warns the real risk is renewed US or Israeli strikes after the vote, with some modelling WTI at $105-110 on escalation. Views split on diplomacy: one thread expects Iran to concede and a deal to follow, while others doubt talks succeed and read sticky rate-hike odds as traders pricing in that skepticism.
On AI, the consensus ties Friday's tech selloff to doubts about returns on hyperscaler capex, how it's funded, and credit stress at smaller "neocloud" players. A contrarian view sees little fundamental cause and calls it selectivity, not a bubble bursting; another frames it squarely as an unwind.
On the Fed, researchers describe a hold with two dissents (Cook, Hammack) and roughly 72-75% odds of a December hike, with energy-driven inflation underpinning that pricing. One thread argues AI-market stress could yet shift the Fed's risk balance.
Watch: midterms Tuesday, RBA, Treasury refunding, payrolls Friday, Apple and Palantir earnings.