US bond yields and a shock jobs report are driving today's macro story — with France quietly becoming the third big worry.
The published research consensus points to US 10-year Treasury yields pushing into the 4.5%–5.3% range, which analysts attribute to sticky inflation, large fiscal deficits, a wave of AI-related corporate borrowing, and softer foreign demand. September payrolls then landed at just 29,000 against a 90,000 consensus, and researchers note market-implied odds of an October Fed hike collapsed from around 70–80% to under 25% — though most argue December is still live and the long end of the curve barely budged.
On Europe, several analyst notes flag the French OAT-Bund spread blowing out to multi-decade wides, reviving fragmentation language not heard since 2012. One camp sees this organic tightening nudging the ECB more dovish; another warns Eurozone inflation is still running hot. A contrarian thread highlights Japan, where the BOJ has hiked to 1.25% and Tokyo inflation hit 2.7%, keeping another move on the table.
Key catalysts researchers are watching: US September CPI, the FOMC minutes, the next ECB meeting, and a looming French credit-rating review.