Published research this week is overwhelmingly focused on one story: the Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% and its global aftershocks. The consensus across analyst notes is "higher for longer," with the Fed's own dot plot showing PCE inflation staying above 2% until 2029.
Multiple research desks tie the inflation pressure back to energy — Saudi pipeline damage and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have kept Brent above $100/bbl, forcing central banks worldwide to lean hawkish. The BOJ also hiked 25bp to 1.25%, its highest since 1995, but dovish dissents left the yen exposed and intervention risk elevated, according to several published notes.
Inside Europe, a widening France–Germany bond spread near 100–105bp — last seen in 2012 — is flagged as the key stress point. Cutting across everything, analysts remain split on whether the AI capex boom can keep powering US growth against tighter financial conditions; one contrarian thread points to a sharp quarterly drop in AI-related investment as a possible turn, while others argue balance sheets stay healthy.
Watch the Trump–Xi summit and flash PMIs next.