Three stories dominated macro research this week.
First, researchers widely flagged the unprecedented US-Japan coordinated yen-buying operation — the first joint action since 1998 and the largest ever in scale, with Japanese purchases estimated near ¥8.45 trillion. Analysts noted the clever use of the Fed's FIMA repo facility, which let Japan fund the intervention without dumping Treasuries. The published consensus is that this only sticks if the BOJ follows through with rate hikes; recent guidance pointing to CPI above 2% and a possible September move is seen as the necessary complement. One camp remains skeptical intervention can reverse the trend without a real shift in rate differentials; another argues this marks a genuine USD/JPY inflection point.
Second, researchers observed that Trump's announcement of Strait of Hormuz ceasefire talks drove Brent down 4–5% into the low-$80s, easing inflation fears and lifting risk assets. A contrarian thread cautions that escalation-then-de-escalation has become cyclical, and markets are growing skeptical of headline durability.
Third, analysts converged on a forced-deleveraging episode across AI-linked equities — a hedge fund blowup, a South Korean leveraged ETF crash, and a sharp reset in semis. Some frame it as healthy clearing of excess; others question whether AI earnings justify rebuilding exposure here. Ambiguous Fed communication and the removal of forward guidance have also pushed long-end Treasury yields to 2007 highs.
Watch Friday's US payrolls (~88k consensus), ISM Manufacturing, and the BOJ's September meeting.