Two forces are steering markets this week: a fragile US-Iran de-escalation and a cluster of major central bank decisions landing against that volatile energy backdrop.
Researchers widely flagged the US pause in strikes on Iran as the day's most market-moving development, with Brent tumbling from above $100 to the high-$80s and triggering relief rallies in risk assets. But the published consensus is that the ceasefire is fragile: Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea infrastructure continue, Iran is reportedly demanding control of Hormuz transit fees, and some analysts point to depleted US missile stocks.
On the Fed, most research houses expect a hold this week, though a contrarian thread now assigns a 30–40% probability to a hike given sticky inflation and energy pressure. Chair Warsh's decision to withhold forward guidance is, several analysts argue, amplifying the uncertainty. The BOJ and BOE are also expected on hold, with watchers looking for any hawkish shift — particularly from the BOJ given multi-decade yen weakness.
A secondary theme: new US Section 301 tariffs of 10–12.5% on roughly 60 trading partners, which researchers flag as an added inflation risk.