Two themes dominate this week's published macro research: Middle East oil shocks feeding global inflation, and the AI capex surge reshaping tech cash flows.
On energy, the research consensus is that attacks on Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Red Sea tanker routes have pushed Brent into a $90–$102 range, embedding a war premium that is lifting inflation expectations. Analysts broadly argue this is the main force pulling US Treasury yields toward 4.6–5.0% and tilting central banks hawkish, with a July hold and September hike now widely anticipated for the Fed.
On AI, a converging camp of analysts flags that hyperscaler capex — Alphabet alone guided to $195–205bn — is driving negative free cash flow and sharp equity selloffs. A contrarian systemic thread warns that roughly $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet tech debt held through SPVs is quietly shifting infrastructure risk onto pension funds and insurers.
Points of divergence: some researchers argue supply-driven inflation rarely passes through to long yields, while others see a $12 trillion US funding need keeping the long end above 5%.