Two stories are driving markets today, according to this week's published macro research: a sharp escalation in US–Iran conflict threatening key oil chokepoints, and the hawkish central bank repricing that follows.
Researchers across multiple desks flag that ten straight nights of US strikes on Iran, plus Houthi threats against Saudi Red Sea exports, have pushed Brent toward $88–91. A contrarian thread warns Brent could reach $120 if hostilities worsen; others note China quietly cutting imports by 4–5 million barrels a day has been the main shock absorber.
On rates, the consensus in recently published notes is that markets are now pricing roughly 38–44 basis points of additional Fed tightening by year-end, with a September hike seen as the base case. One camp dissents, putting hike odds at just 25% and pointing to June's softer CPI.
A separate thread highlights a new Chinese open-source AI model reportedly matching US frontier labs at a third of the cost — framed as a structural margin threat driving tech rotation.
Key catalysts ahead: FOMC on 29 July, core PCE on 30 July, and mega-cap tech earnings.