Today's macro picture: an energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure is colliding with hot US inflation, a hawkish Fed leadership change, and the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing — reshaping rate bets and risk appetite worldwide.
On inflation, the published research consensus reads April CPI at 3.8% YoY and PPI at 6% YoY as well above expectations, driven mainly by energy. Most analysts now argue near-term Fed cuts are off the table, with some pegging odds of a year-end hike above 40%. Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair is widely seen as reinforcing that hawkish tilt, though one camp warns premature cuts would damage credibility.
Researchers describe the Hormuz disruption — roughly 90% of strait shipping halted — as the single biggest near-term macro risk, with Brent trading around $106–$111 and knock-on effects in food, fertiliser, and freight. A contrarian view sees Brent collapsing to $70–80 on any surprise deal; others warn of a spike to $120–150 if conflict escalates.
On the Beijing summit, the prevailing view expects no structural breakthrough — likely just incremental purchase commitments, with semiconductors quietly in focus.