Gold's week: a $4,000 line in the sand, with researchers mostly calling the recent drop a shakeout rather than a trend change.
After a flush toward the high $3,800s, gold reclaimed $4,000 on a softer dollar, lower Treasury yields and heavy short covering. Several analysts framed the selloff as liquidity-driven margin calls inside an intact secular bull, pointing to central bank buying (61 tonnes in September, over 10 million ounces in Q3) and fiscal strain as the core thesis. Near-term targets ranged from $4,214 up to $4,500 by year-end, with one longer-horizon view lifted to $10,000 by decade-end on fiscal dominance grounds. A twelve-month $4,700 call tied to fading US exceptionalism also circulated, alongside a more modest 15–20% rally scenario for next year.
Not everyone agreed. A contrarian strand flagged a possible retest near $3,857, warned the bounce looks like an oversold rally without the weak-dollar/easing backdrop, and noted a prominent end-2026 target was cut to $4,150 from $4,650. In a dollar liquidity event, gold could still get sold first and recover later.