Gold spent the week caught between a stiff near-term headwind and an intact long-term bull case.
The bearish side firmed up: hotter US core CPI, real yields near multi-year highs around 3%, a firmer dollar, and shifting rate-hike expectations prompted several research notes to flag downside risk, with chart work pointing to possible tests of $3,600 or even $3,100. One strategist went further, saying they'd sold holdings and would only buy materially lower.
The strategic case, however, kept drawing fresh endorsements. Analysts repeatedly cited sustained central bank accumulation (China in particular), record COMEX delivery activity, fiscal-dominance concerns, and gold's role as a hedge against dollar weaponization and policy missteps. Published price paths ranged from $4,500 by Q4 2026 rising toward $5,400 in 2027, with another view seeing a rally back above $5,000 once yields and the dollar eventually turn.
Takeaway from the week's research: tactically vulnerable, structurally supported.