Published research on gold is uniformly bullish across time horizons right now — the only real debate is whether there's a sharp dip to buy first.
The bull case, as laid out across recent research, rests on converging forces: constrained mine supply, steady recycling, and growing central bank and investment demand, against a backdrop where bonds and real estate look unattractive. Several analysts frame today's macro mix — large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation risk, and official-sector buying — as the mirror image of the late-80s/90s environment that crushed gold. A recurring theme is renewed central bank accumulation by China and Russia, driven by geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions risk, and poor returns on FX reserves. Strong ETF inflows and stabilising oil prices (keeping inflation live) are cited as additional supports.
Where views diverge is timing. One camp warns that a hawkish Fed and a US dollar index pushing toward 110 could drag gold down roughly 10% toward $3,700 from around $4,100 before resuming higher. The strategic consensus treats any such washout as a buying opportunity.