Gold: the published research consensus is strategically bullish, with a few tactical cautions near term.
Researchers point to three structural pillars driving the long-run case: central banks diversifying reserves away from the US dollar, fiscal sustainability worries and currency debasement, and institutional and ETF demand returning after each pullback. One analysis notes central bank gold allocations in FX reserves have climbed from roughly 10–12% to 24–25%, and a related view argues this still sits well below historical peaks — leaving runway for more.
The most ambitious published target floats above $10,000, with gold retesting highs into 2027/2028 before a deflationary turn, tied to shifts in the global monetary system.
A contrarian thread flags near-term headwinds: elevated US real yields and a stronger dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. One estimate suggests a potential $500 drop if 10-year real yields rise another 50 basis points. Notably, the same researchers pair this tactical caution with a longer-run bullish stance — horizon, not direction, is the real divide.