Gold: the published research is split, and the split is mostly about time horizon.
On the bearish side, several recent research notes argue that hotter-than-expected US inflation and the prospect of prolonged Fed tightening — reinforced by a recent rate hike and hawkish commentary from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari — are near-term headwinds for a non-yielding asset. One technical read adds that gold keeps failing to make new highs while equities stay in risk-on mode.
The bullish camp, working on longer horizons, points to something unusual: ETF holdings are rising even with US 10-year real yields at 20-year highs. Analysts in this camp read that as investors quietly hedging fiscal sustainability and sovereign debt risk. Others highlight a failed bearish chart pattern, the odd setup of gold rising alongside a stronger dollar, and gold's role as a core medium-term hold tied to soft-dollar narratives. A more strategic thread frames gold as a portfolio foundation against geopolitical fragmentation and structural inflation.
Bottom line from the research: tactically cautious, cyclically and strategically constructive — often held by the same analysts.