Gold's weekly recap: strategic bulls dominated the published research, even as tactical bears warned of near-term pressure from rising yields and Fed hike odds.
The bullish case, echoed across most desks, rests on fiscal dominance, dollar debasement fears, and record central bank buying — one note cited 244 tons of official-sector purchases in Q1 alone, with reserve managers repatriating holdings. Multiple institutional forecasts targeted roughly $6,000/oz by end-2026, with more aggressive long-term calls reaching $10,000/oz by decade's end. Analysts framed gold as a hedge against persistent inflation, deteriorating public finances, and eroding trust in Treasuries.
The bear camp pointed to firmer US jobs and PPI data lifting Fed hike odds, a stronger dollar, and surging global yields as immediate headwinds. One tactical view flagged gold's unusually high correlation with equities and stretched positioning as reasons for caution.
A more balanced outlook saw prices averaging around $4,500/oz into year-end, supported by central bank demand and midterm-election safe-haven flows.