Gold: published research is uniformly bullish, pointing to a rare alignment of structural, cyclical, and event-driven tailwinds.
The dominant thesis across recent research is US dollar debasement, amplified by the Treasury's bond buyback programme and the mechanics of drawing down its cash account. Analysts argue this is fueling safe-haven and hard-asset demand. A second pillar is central bank buying: surveys cited in the published research show nearly nine in ten central banks expect global reserves to rise, and record Chinese gold imports tied to renminbi internationalisation support a model price target of $4,000, with one camp arguing $5,000 is reachable if flows accelerate.
Geopolitical risk — US-Iran tensions, fiscal uncertainty — is cited as reinforcing safe-haven demand. A longer-horizon thread frames gold as a structural buy on dips, arguing dollar devaluation is the only viable path to manage the US debt load. Positioning work notes net length hit an 11-month high before the buyback, with a 6.2% surge afterward.
One contrarian nuance: higher long-term yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold — a headwind acknowledged, but not seen as directionally decisive.