Published research on gold is leaning bullish, with most analysts expecting further gains — though one contrarian thread warns of a near-term pullback toward $3,500 before any recovery.
The core bull case, according to the published research consensus, rests on de-dollarization and steady central bank buying. Some recently-published views put long-run targets as high as $12,000–$14,000 an ounce, arguing structural demand supports gold regardless of where rates go. Other analysts frame it more tactically: falling oil prices have cooled inflation and rate-hike fears, keeping Treasury yields in check and supporting gold into the next Fed meeting. A separate strand emphasizes gold's role as an inflation hedge in the current macro backdrop, while some technicians read gold's refusal to fall despite rising rates as a sign the correction is largely done.
The dissenting view — targeting roughly $3,500 by year-end — cites war-financing selling from Ukraine and Iran, plus fading Taiwan-invasion fears that reduce central bank urgency. Researchers largely reconcile this as a horizon gap, not a directional split: a cyclical detour within a still-bullish long-term path.