Gold: published research is split, but it's mostly a timing debate rather than a real disagreement on direction.
On the bearish side, some recently-published views argue gold faces more downside as higher energy prices push the Fed to hold rates longer, lifting real yields and the dollar. Gold is already down more than 20% from its highs, and one analysis flags a possible retest of $4,000/oz if selling continues. A specific tactical risk highlighted in recent research: if Tether is forced to liquidate its sizeable gold holdings under new US regulations, that supply could deepen the near-term pressure.
The bullish camp of researchers leans structural. They point to relentless central bank buying — China has now purchased for 20 straight months — record physical delivery demand at COMEX, and gold's role as a hedge against dollar alternatives. A recurring argument: gold does not need rate cuts to rally. One thread also notes that gold volatility has firmed during the selloff, which they read as ongoing tail-risk hedging and a setup for recovery once rate and geopolitical risks are repriced.