Gold spent the week caught between a clear tactical downtrend and an intact long-term bull case.
Near-term, researchers flagged a confirmed technical breakdown — price below the 10- and 20-week moving averages, repeated failed rallies, and lower highs. Headwinds included a firmer dollar, sticky inflation from Middle East energy risk, resilient US jobs data pushing rate-cut expectations out, and tighter Chinese liquidity. One technical read pointed to a possible retracement toward $3,600, roughly 20% lower, as a healthy reset of an earlier euphoric spike. A separate long-horizon forecast saw the average price easing from around $5,000/oz in 2026 to $4,700 in 2027.
The strategic bull case stayed firmly in place: continued central bank accumulation (notably Poland, China, and the Czech Republic returning as net buyers in April), reserve diversification away from the dollar, fiscal and debt concerns, and gold miners viewed as structurally undervalued. Several analysts framed current weakness as consolidation before a renewed leg higher later in 2026.