Published research is overwhelmingly bullish on gold, though one tactical dissent stands out.
The consensus view across recent research points to central bank demand as the dominant driver. Analysts highlight fresh data showing a return to net buying in April from Poland, China, and the Czech Republic. A parallel thread argues that diversification away from the US dollar is accelerating as the Iran conflict raises geopolitical risk. Researchers also note that uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz energy flows is keeping major central banks cautious on inflation, limiting rate cuts and reinforcing gold's appeal as a non-yielding safe haven. The long-term fundamental case, the published consensus holds, remains intact even if positioning looks neutral right now.
A contrarian thread pushes back on the tactical horizon. Some recently-published views frame the rest of Q2 as cautious to bearish: gold is underperforming despite elevated geopolitical risk, rallies keep failing, price sits below key moving averages, and a firmer dollar plus rising rates are headwinds. The divergence is largely about timeframe — short-term caution against a cyclical-to-strategic bullish call.