Gold spent the week caught between a stubborn bid and a hawkish rates backdrop — but the structural bull case dominated the published research.
The bearish thread was tactical: hotter US inflation, rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and over 40% odds of another Fed hike by year-end were cited as reasons gold drifted lower mid-week. India's import tariff hike from 6% to 15% was flagged as a near-term headwind for physical demand.
The bullish case, voiced far more widely, leaned structural. Analysts pointed to relentless central bank buying (China especially), fiat debasement, unsustainable deficits, and reserve diversification away from the dollar. Several pieces argued the recent pullback is a buying opportunity, with sticky inflation and stagflation risk from the Strait of Hormuz disruption ultimately favoring real assets. Price targets cited in published research ranged from $5,000/oz by year-end, to a $5,000 peak in Q1 2027, to longer-horizon calls of $6,000–$8,000 and even $10,000.
Net: tactical pressure, strategic conviction intact.