Gold's near-term setup looks heavy, but the published research consensus splits sharply on timeframe rather than direction.
Researchers argue two distinct headwinds are converging tactically. One camp highlights India's decision to more than double gold import tariffs — from 6% to 15% — as a direct hit to physical demand from the world's second-largest buyer. A separate strand of analysis points to stronger-than-expected US inflation and rising Treasury yields, which reinforce a "higher for longer" Fed stance and raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Some recently published views add that the prospect of a new Fed chair and sticky energy-driven price pressures compound the drag.
A contrarian thread of recent research frames it differently, putting forward a long-run target of $10,000 grounded in persistent inflation and the structural tendency of hard assets to appreciate over time. Crucially, that's a multi-year strategic call — not a same-horizon dispute with the tactical bears.