Published research is lining up firmly bullish on gold, with multiple independent analyses pointing higher across short, medium, and long-term horizons.
The common thread runs through the Middle East, oil, inflation, and the Fed. One camp of analysts argues that if a US-Iran deal cools energy prices, easing inflation gives the Fed room to cut rates, dragging yields down and lifting gold. A separate research thread reaches the same bullish conclusion via the opposite path: prolonged geopolitical stress and oil supply shocks keep structural inflation sticky, supporting gold over a longer horizon.
On price, the published forecasts get specific. One cyclical projection sees gold averaging $5,000/oz in 2026, up sharply from roughly $3,436 in 2025. Another recently-published view targets $6,000 before year-end, pointing to technical base-building alongside the macro backdrop.
The nuance: some researchers flag that a credible Iran peace deal — or stalled talks reversing — could trigger a tactical pullback. But none of these are calls against gold; they frame dips as event-driven interruptions to an intact uptrend.