European equities are catching a constructive cyclical tailwind, according to research published this week — with the DAX as the lone near-term exception.
The bullish case, laid out by one camp of analysts, rests on eurozone Q2 2026 GDP surprising to the upside across France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. Researchers point to broad-based strength in aerospace, electrification, healthcare, and defence driving both exports and domestic demand. Spanish composite PMI hit a six-month high, Italian domestic demand held up, and France's sectoral champions are underpinning investment intentions into the second half.
A separate tactical read argues the recent run of positive GDP and confidence data is already feeding through as a near-term equity tailwind, with the CAC 40, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35, and EURO STOXX 50 best positioned.
The contrarian note: some recently-published views expect the DAX to open softer, citing Iran tensions, oil volatility, and negative spillover from US markets. Importantly, this is a today-only tactical call — not a challenge to the medium-term story.