Published research is tilting bullish on the euro against the dollar over the medium term, though near-term caution is widespread heading into the US midterms.
Most of the recently-published research consensus points higher, with one contrarian thread staying firmly dollar-positive. Bulls flag a near-record speculative short in the euro, which analysts argue could amplify any upside surprise. Some researchers add that the ECB has signalled readiness to hike in December, and see dollar downside risks from AI-related equity jitters and a possible Democratic midterm sweep — though a still-hawkish Fed likely caps any major dollar slide. Another camp attributes recent dollar strength almost entirely to euro weakness, while others cite rate differentials, energy prices, and the euro's rotation into a carry funding currency.
On levels, published forecasts cluster around 1.14–1.16 by late 2026, with some paths extending to 1.20–1.22 into 2027–2028. A near-term retest of 1.12–1.1250 around the midterms is flagged as plausible. The lone bearish view sees sustained dollar strength with no stated horizon.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 27 Oct 2026): Euro: speculators (leveraged funds) are net short, 8.2% of open interest. That is the largest net short in a year: crowded short (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 2,734 contracts on the week.