Published research is leaning heavily bearish on EUR/USD in the near term, with a smaller camp calling for a longer-dated rebound.
The main bearish argument, echoed across several independent research notes this week, centers on France: widening sovereign spreads, a deteriorating fiscal picture, and political uncertainty are pushing the euro lower on its own merits. Analysts also point to a sharp repricing of ECB rate-hike expectations — one estimate cites roughly 30bp removed from the ECB path versus only 13bp from the Fed — which widens the rate gap in the dollar's favor. Some researchers flag technical support at 1.11 and 1.0880 as the next levels in focus, with limited stabilizing action from European authorities so far.
A contrarian thread pushes back, arguing French risk is overstated and the dollar lacks fundamental support versus gold, the yen, and Bitcoin. Longer-horizon research consensus from this camp targets EUR/USD recovering toward 1.20 by end-2027, with one cyclical view pointing as high as 1.30–1.35 — though even those notes concede a dip toward 1.14 is plausible first.