Published research is lining up behind a stronger euro against the dollar — with no clear dissent this week.
Researchers argue the strategic case rests on relative fiscal positions, stabilising eurozone confidence, and a multi-year rotation of global portfolios away from US dollar assets. One published forecast sees EUR/USD climbing from around 1.1691 toward 1.21–1.22 by 2028.
A separate strand of analysis reaches a similar destination via a cyclical route: 1.16–1.18 by late 2026 or early 2027 as the Fed cuts and US–eurozone rate differentials narrow, extending to 1.17–1.18 by end-2027.
On the near-term tactical view, some recently published work points to resilient eurozone activity surveys, sticky consumer inflation expectations, and a gradual, orderly dollar decline, with the pair consolidating in a 1.1670–1.1710 range and room to grind higher.
One contrarian nuance worth flagging: a thread of commentary suggests Europe would quietly tolerate a weaker euro if US-driven euro-selling returned, since it would help exports — a conditional caveat, not a call against the bullish lean.