Published research this week makes a bullish case for the euro against the dollar, with analysts arguing EUR/USD has further room to run as the greenback softens.
The core thesis from one strand of recent research: rising risk premiums on US Treasuries, elevated term premiums, and a shrinking rate gap versus the eurozone are steadily eroding the dollar's yield advantage. In plain terms — investors are demanding more compensation to hold US debt, while the interest-rate edge that historically supported the dollar is fading.
EUR/USD has already pushed above 1.16, and the research consensus flags upcoming decisions from the Fed and the ECB as the next major catalysts for the pair. Looking further out, some recently-published views frame the path ahead as continued dollar weakness over the coming quarters, with persistent US policy uncertainty keeping pressure on the currency.
The takeaway analysts are converging on: the structural props under the dollar are thinning, and the euro looks positioned to benefit.