The published research consensus is that the ECB will deliver one more 25bp hike in December, taking the deposit rate to 2.75%, with most analysts arguing it's the last or near-last move of the cycle.
The reasoning cited across recent research: energy-driven inflation (euro area CPI hit 3.8% in September), Lagarde's signal that the direction of travel is set, and tighter financial conditions already weighing on growth. A contrarian thread argues markets are overpricing another 75bp of tightening and that borrowing costs will drift lower.
On sovereigns, France is flagged as the stress point. One camp of analysts sees French 10-year yields roughly 100bp higher and the spread over Germany widening further until the ECB steps in, with political risk keeping the OAT/Bund spread (around 155bp) volatile into the presidential election. Some researchers argue Italian BTP yields rise toward 4.20% in Q4 2026 before easing. Others expect core European yields to fall into next year and prefer adding duration in high-quality short-to-medium bonds.
The disagreement is timing, not direction.
By the numbers:
• European Central Bank policy rate 2.50%, last move +25 bp on 16 Sep 2026. Next decision 17 Dec 2026.
• Market pricing (Eurex €STR futures, FinChiefs calculation, 30 Oct 2026): hike 73%, hold 27% on 17 Dec 2026; +55 bp priced by 10 Jun 2027.
• Euro area 10-year yield 3.37%, 2-year 3.01% (European Central Bank, 29 Oct 2026).
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates/ecb