European government bonds look set for more pressure, according to the bulk of recently published research.
The dominant view across published analysis: yields on German Bunds, French OATs, and Spanish bonds are heading higher over the next year or two. One detailed research framework sees the German 10-year Bund yield peaking near 3.30% by end-2026, with the ECB deposit rate climbing to 3.00% as energy-driven inflation proves sticky. Spanish 10-year yields are pegged around 3.80% by end-2026, with analysts noting Spain's fundamentals look better than France or Italy's.
France is the problem child. Multiple research threads flag the French OAT as losing its long-end "anchor" amid fiscal and political uncertainty, a dynamic researchers warn won't fade in the next three to six months. Some see contagion spilling into Italian and Greek spreads. ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch's view that more hikes remain likely is cited as reinforcing the tightening backdrop.
A contrarian note: one research observation points to brief safe-haven demand lifting euro bond prices — but the consensus still tilts bearish.