Published European rates research this week leans clearly one way: wider peripheral spreads and structural upward pressure on long-end euro rates, with France now the focal point.
Multiple research notes flag the France-Germany 10-year yield gap as stretched to levels last seen during the 2010–2012 sovereign debt crisis. Analysts point to French fiscal slippage, election-related political uncertainty, rating downgrades, and no obvious positive catalyst. One published range puts the spread heading to 100–125bp, and a separate note calls the recent widening "a note of concern" if it persists.
On ECB policy, the research consensus expects at least one more hike, with a December move to 2.75% cited as the base case on sticky inflation. A contrarian thread notes that Lagarde and Vujcic have been pushing back on the three-to-four-hike path implied by market pricing — a downside risk to the terminal rate.
Separately, researchers argue Dutch pension reform removes a long-standing buyer of long-dated swaps, leaving the 30-year euro swap rate and 10s30s curve structurally steeper. A regime shift, not a cyclical call — and one seen as supportive for euro IG and SSA bonds.