European bond yields look set to grind higher, according to the bulk of research published this week.
Analysts point to structural forces: sticky inflation expectations, a repricing of where rates ultimately land, large fiscal deficits, and heavy sovereign and corporate bond supply. One camp of researchers has nudged its year-end forecast for eurozone 10-year yields toward 3.5%, citing tight co-movement with US Treasuries and energy market risk. On country spreads, a widely-circulated call sees the France-Germany 10-year gap widening to 120 basis points as France's fiscal credibility keeps eroding.
Several published views also expect the ECB to deliver at least one more 25bp hike near-term — framed as an energy-shock "one and done" — before strategic cuts eventually arrive in the second half of 2027.
The contrarian thread: a tactical argument that German Bund yields could snap lower short-term, as short positioning has become crowded. Researchers holding that view stress it's a near-term mean reversion, not a challenge to the broader higher-yields story.