European government bond yields look set to push higher, with published research broadly aligned on an imminent ECB rate hike and energy-driven inflation keeping upward pressure on eurozone debt.
The dominant catalyst is the upcoming ECB meeting. A wide swath of recent analyst commentary treats a 25 basis point hike as fully or near-fully priced, which flows directly into higher euro sovereign yields. Several research notes add that rising oil and natural gas prices are lifting eurozone inflation expectations, sustaining pressure on German Bund yields beyond the meeting itself.
A more structural thread argues the global government bond selloff — driven by debt sustainability worries, heavy sovereign issuance, and no political appetite for fiscal restraint — is "orderly" but likely to persist across developed markets, with little chance of stabilizing absent real fiscal tightening.
On specifics, one view flags the German 10-year Bund yield grinding higher into the ECB decision, while another notes markets are now pricing three ECB hikes over the next 12 months — implying the pressure extends well past a single meeting.