Today's European bond research skews bearish on German Bunds — one published view argues 10-year Bund yields keep grinding higher, with Bund prices under sustained pressure.
The reasoning, as laid out by researchers this week, rests on a mix of structural forces. Sovereign bond supply is expected to stay heavy for years, as governments issue more debt to fund defence and AI-related spending. At the same time, long-end demand is structurally fading — Dutch pension funds, historically big buyers of long-dated European debt, are pulling back as they navigate regulatory changes. Put simply: more supply meeting less natural demand.
Analysts behind this call note that 10-year Bund yields have already brushed their 3.20% year-end target more than once. Even so, the published view is to stay comfortably positioned for higher yields into year-end and beyond, expecting further tests of cycle highs.
Bottom line from this thread of research: the path of least resistance for German 10-year yields is up, not down.