European bond yields look set to keep grinding higher, according to the published research consensus this week. No meaningful case for falling yields showed up in today's analysis.
Researchers argue that equity market optimism and elevated real interest rates are pinning the German 10-year Bund just above 3.10%, with no obvious catalyst to reverse it. Notably, inflation expectations have eased — so it's real rates, not inflation fear, doing the heavy lifting.
Separate quarterly forecasts point the same way on a longer horizon: one camp projects euro area 10-year government yields climbing from 2.5% in early 2025 to 3.4% by Q3 2026, with German yields tracking that path on sticky inflation and a slowly tightening backdrop.
A third strand of recent research adds a policy angle, flagging a bias toward further ECB rate hikes if growth and inflation data hold up, given revised-higher euro area growth forecasts.
The through-line across these views: a higher-for-longer European rate regime, driven by resilient growth and real-rate pressure, keeps upward momentum on yields intact.