Published research this week leans constructive on German Bunds and cautious on European corporate credit.
The consensus from recent third-party analysis favors an overweight in Bund prices, framing German government debt as a cleaner safe haven than UK Gilts — less exposed to Britain's fiscal wobble and to global energy shocks, with room to rally further if Iran-related geopolitical risk fades. A separate strand of research flagged a tactical 3 basis point drop in 10-year Bund yields, tied to softer oil prices easing near-term inflation expectations.
The two views aren't in tension: both point the same direction (lower yields, higher Bund prices), just on different horizons and for different reasons — one cyclical, one tactical.
On the credit side, analysts are more guarded. A recurring published view holds an underweight on European investment-grade credit spreads, arguing they should widen as tighter financial conditions and heavy supply weigh on the asset class. Current spread levels, in that view, aren't wide enough to compensate for the risk.