European bond research is leaning hawkish: the consensus across recently-published views is that the ECB delivers one more 25bp hike in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.5%, with Bund yields staying elevated and Italian spreads under pressure.
Researchers argue Germany's unusual fiscal expansion is anchoring a "higher for longer" call on Bunds, with 10-year yields already above 3% and investors rotating out of sovereigns into investment-grade corporates. Multiple published analyses flag that markets have already priced the September ECB move, driven by expectations of Eurozone inflation rebounding to roughly 2.7% in 2026 on energy shocks. One camp adds a conditional caveat — the hike only lands if energy prices and second-round effects follow through — while others treat it as a base case.
On the periphery, a contrarian thread singles out Italy: heavy reliance on energy imports amplifies sovereign risk, and the Italy-Bund 10Y spread is seen widening over the medium term.